Even fridge weather can’t keep a good real estate market down! Despite the weather, we’ve had strong demand in our subzero sellers market in Walworth County!
Inventory is low.
Demand is high.
Prices are steady.
But what does that mean for buyers and sellers in our market?
Let’s break down what’s really happening with homes for sale in Lake Geneva, WI, what the numbers actually mean, and how buyers and sellers should be thinking right now—without overreacting, overpricing, or overthinking.
Absorption Rate: Still a Seller’s Market (And That’s Completely Normal)
Walworth County: down from 2.86 → 2.57 months
Lake Geneva: up slightly from 2.44 → 2.54 months
Yes—both are still firmly seller’s markets.
Here’s issue: Homeowners don’t want to move. It’s winter. And it’s subfreezing.
Fewer listings. Fewer buyers. Less movement.
That naturally tightens inventory and pushes absorption rates lower.
What this means:
- Sellers who are on the market or want to list now: You still have leverage—but only if your home is priced and positioned correctly.
- Buyers: If a seller is listed right now, they’re serious—and the good homes are still moving.
And buyers, if resale inventory simply isn’t delivering the quality, layout, or price that makes sense for your life… there are new construction pathways opening up locally that are quietly changing what ‘affordable’ and ‘custom’ can look like.
If you’re curious, let’s talk.
And one quiet shift worth noting: Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates are no longer the reason deals aren’t happening—pricing, condition, and positioning are.
Buyers have adapted to this rate environment—and the homes that respect that reality are still selling.
In 2026, HousingWire forecasts that mortgage rates will range from 5.75% to 6.75%. The anticipation has already taken hold. Case in point, according data from Mortgage Bankers Association, housing applications our up 18% year over year.
It dropped 8.9% the week after, but Winter Storm Fern likely had an impact as much of the country was snowed in, hampering homebuying activity,” said Joel Kan, the MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist.
Moreover, while many of you might be following the drama between the Federal Reserve and President Trump, as you can see from the graph below, mortgage rates don’t follow the Federal Fund Rate, they follow the 10 year treasury notes.
QUICK STORY FROM THE TRENCHES
I was at a home inspection with one of my buyers, and we were coming up on her financing contingency deadline.
So I asked her, “Have you locked in your rate yet?”
She said no—because her lender was waiting to see if the Fed would lower rates.
I paused and said, “Why?”
Mortgage rates don’t follow the Fed Funds Rate.
They follow the 10-year Treasury.
By waiting on something that wasn’t actually going to improve her rate, she ended up locking at 6.3% instead of the 6.1% she could have had just days earlier.
Not because the market turned.
Not because she did anything wrong.
But because she waited for the wrong signal.
Takeaway:
In this market, timing matters—but understanding what actually moves rates matters more.
Median Sale Prices: A Perfect Example of How Stats Can Lie
Walworth County: down to $405,000
Lake Geneva: down to $350,000
Before anyone panics or gets excited — let's pause.
That Lake Geneva number is wildly misleading.
Why?
Because there were only three sales last month, all between $250K–$350K.
That’s not a trend.
That’s a sample-size issue.
What this actually tells us:
- Sellers: Don’t anchor pricing decisions to a single winter stat without context.
- Buyers: Don’t assume values suddenly dropped—higher-end inventory simply didn’t transact last month.
Stats don’t lie.
But they can mislead—especially in low-volume winter markets.
Days on Market: Strong—But Context Matters
Walworth County: down from 63 → 47.9 days
Lake Geneva: down from 86.6 → 32.3 days
At first glance, that looks very strong—especially for winter.
And in Walworth County? It is.
But in Lake Geneva, with only three sales, that number doesn’t carry much statistical weight.
Historically:
- Walworth County: 40–70 days is normal
Lake Geneva: 20–80+ days depending on season and price tier
We’re right where we should be.
What this means:
- Sellers: In Walworth County overall, there’s strong demand for this time of year!
- Buyers: The right homes still move very quickly—even in subfreezing January weather.
Sold-to-List Price Ratio: Still Impressively Strong
Walworth County: up from 93.9% → 94.8%
Lake Geneva: down from 98.6% → 96.2%
Translation - homes are selling for:
- ~5% under asking in Walworth County
- ~4% under asking in Lake Geneva
In January?
That’s excellent.
This tells us buyers aren’t lowballing for sport—they’re negotiating rationally.
Translation:
- Sellers: Realistic pricing is being rewarded.
- Buyers: There’s room to negotiate—but not to insult.
Luxury & Lakefront Insight (Because This Market Is Different)
For affluent lakefront and second-home buyers, here’s the quiet truth:
There’s plenty of inventory, but about 55% of the current inventory in Walworth County is above the $500K price range.— but there is not enough compelling inventory.
Luxury buyers want:
- Turnkey condition
- Clear value justification
- Lifestyle, not homework
They’ll pay for TIME, not TILE.
And for sellers?
Champagne pricing still requires champagne condition—especially in winter.
Final Takeaway
This isn’t a weak market.
It’s a selective one.
It rewards:
- Precision over optimism
- Strategy over guessing
- Local insight over national noise
And it quietly penalizes guessing.
Ready for a Real Answer?
Sellers: If you want a price valuation that isn’t automated, generic, or algorithmic — reach out.
Buyers: We’ll help you find the right homes so you don’t miss out and safeguard you through the process.
Make your next move… Legendary.
About Jade Goodhue
Expert real estate agent specializing in Lake Geneva and surrounding areas. Helping families find their dream homes with personalized service and local market expertise.
Contact Jade Goodhue